predictors of poor seizure control in children managed at a tertiary care hospital of eastern nepal

how to cite this article: poudel p, chitlangia m, pokharel r. predictors of poor seizure control in children managed at a tertiary care hospital of eastern nepal iran j child neurol. summer 2016; 10(3):48-56.   abstract objective various factors have been claimed to predict outcome of afebrile seizures in children. this study was aimed to find out the predictors of poor seizure control in children at a resource limited setting. materials & methods this prospective study was done from july 1st, 2009 to january 31st, 2012 at b.p. koirala institute of health sciences, nepal. children (1 month-20 yr of age) with afebrile seizures presenting to pediatric neurology clinic were studied. significant predictors on bivariate analysis were further analyzed with binary logistic model to find out the true predictors. positive predictive values (ppvs) and negative predictive values (npvs) for the true predictors were calculated. results out of 256 patients (male: female ratio 3:2) with afebrile seizures followed up for median duration of 27 (iqr 12-50) months, seizure was poorly controlled in 20% patients. three factors predicted poor seizure control. they were frequent (≥1 per month) seizures at onset (or 12.76, 95% ci 1.44-112.73, ppv 25%, npv 98%); remote symptomatic etiology (or 3.56, 95% ci 1.04-12.17, ppv 36%, npv 92%); and need of more than one anticonvulsant drug (polytherapy) (or 12.83, 95% ci 5.50-29.9, ppv 56%, npv 96%). the strongest predictor was need of polytherapy. when all three factors were present, ppv and npv for prediction of poor seizure control were 70% and 90% respectively. conclusion frequent seizures at onset, remote symptomatic etiology of seizure and need of polytherapy were associated with poor seizure control in children with afebrile seizures.     references sander jw, shorvon sd. epidemiology of the epilepsies. j neurol neurosurg psychiatry 1996; 61:433-43. johnston mv. seizures in childhood. in: behman re, kleigman rm, jenson hb, eds. nelson textbook of pediatrics 17thed. philadelphia: saunders, 2004:1993-2005. sillanpaa m. remission of seizures and prediction of intractability in long-term follow-up. epilepsia 1993; 34:930-6. harrison rm, taylor dc. childhood seizures: a 25-year follow-up, social and medical prognosis. lancet 1976; 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